Deciding whether to buy a home is one of the biggest financial decisions you’ll ever make, and it feels hard to make the right decision when things are constantly changing with the real estate markets in the Lower Mainland. On top of this, each neighbourhood or city has unique dynamics that change, as well.
Should you wait? Should you buy now? The short answer is, it’s complicated.
In this guide, we’ll break down what’s happening in the market right now, review some trends that may play out in 2026, and provide frameworks to help you decide if this is the right time to buy in the Lower Mainland for your unique situation.
Current Market Reality: A Snapshot of November 2025
To first understand what 2026 may look like, we’ll need to look at how 2025 wrapped up. The most recent data from the November 2025 Monthly Report from Greater Vancouver Realtors shows that many buyers are waiting for 2026, with sellers adjusting accordingly.
Total Sales
There were 1,846 sales, which represents a 15.4% decrease year-over-year and is 20.6% below the 10-year seasonal average.
Active Inventory
Active listings hit their highest point in recent years, with 15,149 homes on the market.
Composite Price
Prices have slightly come down across all property types, too. Now hovering around $1,123,700. These prices are down 3.9% from last year in 2024.
Sales-to-Active Ratio
This crucial metric sits at 12.6%. Generally, anything below 12% indicates downward pressure on prices. We are hovering just above that threshold, signaling a fragile stability.
Overall
We can see that we’re wrapping up 2025 with a buyer’s market that’s presenting the right opportunities if you’re looking to get into your first home or if you’re looking to upsize. If you’re a seller who has patience or wants to price aggressively, there are buyers out there still looking.
For those looking to downsize, waiting until February or Spring 2026 may be the right move.
Recommended Resource: 5 Major Considerations When Downsizing Your Home
What’s Happening by Property Type?
While the data above is mostly in aggregate, the real estate market in the Lower Mainland doesn’t move in sync across all property types. Depending on what you are looking to buy or sell, it may be better to move now or be patient.
Detached Homes
The detached homes segment is experiencing a large shift into a buyer’s market. The sales-to-active ratio is only 9.7%, well below the 12% threshold at which pricing pressures come into play.
On average, detached homes across Metro Vancouver are staying on the market for about 51 days. It’s another support for buyers as you’ll have more time to consider your options without the pressure of competing offers that are typical in a seller’s market.
If you are looking to buy a detached home in Metro Vancouver, this could be an ideal time to find value.
If you’re selling, get your property in the right shape with all necessary maintenance and potential upgrades (like a roof) so you can list with your best foot forward.
Townhouses
The townhouse market is more balanced but still leans in favor of buyers.
The benchmark price (as of November 2025) for a townhouse is $1,065,600. The sales-to-active ratio sits at 13.6%, which is just above the line for a balanced market.
Townhouses are selling in approximately 39 days, which is faster than detached homes in this current market.
If you’re buying, there are some great opportunities right now to find the right townhouse for you and your future goals.
If you’re selling and you price it right, your property will find the right buyers in due time.
Condos
The condo market is carrying the highest inventory, with 6,401 active listings available, providing a wide range of choices for buyers.
The benchmark price (as of November 2025) for a condo is $714,300, with a sales-to-active ratio of 15.8% and an average of 44 days on the market. The condo market in Metro Vancouver is relatively stable, but downward pricing pressures continue due to the large volume of listings.
If you’re buying a condo, it could be a perfect entry point at this time.
If you’re selling your condo, you’ll need to price it right, especially if you’re looking to upsize to a townhome or detached house.
As the Chief Economist for Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) recently noted, buyers are patiently waiting on the sidelines, and sellers are having to adjust to market conditions we haven’t seen in years. For a transaction to happen today, pricing must reflect this new reality.
Recommended Resource: Top 5 Most Affordable Cities In the Lower Mainland [Buyers Guide]
The Buy vs Wait Decision
One of the most common questions we hear, especially in these markets, is, “Should I buy now or wait six months?”
The answer depends heavily on who you are, what you are buying, and your personal situation. Let’s dive into a couple of specific scenarios to help guide you on how this decision process works.
If you’d like to discuss your specific situation with us, no obligation, please contact us today.
The First-Time Buyer
Let’s say you are looking at a beautiful 1-bedroom plus den condo, priced around $714,300. This condo would be a first-time home purchase.
The Case for Buying Now
By getting into the market now, you’re helping to invest and put your hard-earned money into a home, instead of paying rent that doesn’t net any equity for you. After a few years, that equity builds.
Prices have come down for condos, too. With lots of inventory, there are a great number of condos that give you the flexibility and freedom of choice.
If the purchase price is under $835,000, you likely qualify for the Property Transfer Tax exemption, saving you approximately $14,300.
The Risk of Waiting 6 Months or More
If prices decline another 3% (a real possibility), you might save about $21,400 on the purchase price. However, if you are currently renting for $2,500 a month, waiting six months costs you $15,000 in rent.
When you factor in the rent paid versus the potential price drop, the financial outcome is basically a wash. Or even a slight advantage to buying now to start building that equity.
The Upsize
Now, let’s say you’re looking to upsize from a townhouse to a detached home. This new home you want is priced around $1.9 million.
The Case for Buying Now
With a sales ratio of just 9.7%, you can come to the table with negotiating room. Homes are sitting on the market for nearly two months on average. Additionally, there is limited competition, as sales are down 20.6% below normal levels.
Similarly, the demand for townhouses is slightly more balanced, meaning you’ll be able to sell your townhouse (if priced correctly) and easily make an offer on your next dream home.
The Case for Waiting 6 to 12 Months
On a $1.9 million home, Royal LePage has suggested that further declines of up to 5% may be seen; that’s a drop of $95,000. Even after factoring in rent and opportunity costs of roughly $25,000, waiting could net you potential savings of $70,000.
The risk, of course, is that if prices remain stable and more buyers begin to enter the market, you could face further competition or miss out on your dream property.
Recommended Resource: Leasehold vs Freehold Property in British Columbia
2026 Real Estate Market Outlook
Looking ahead to 2026, what can we expect for residential real estate in Metro Vancouver? Well, here are some predictions and opinions based on data.
The base case projection suggests we’ll see an additional 2-3% price decline in the first half of the year, followed by stabilization in the third and fourth quarters. We anticipate sales will remain 15-20% below historical averages, and inventory will stay elevated but begin to normalize as prices stabilise from the declines in 2025.
2026 Key Market Drivers to Watch
Monetary Policy
The Bank of Canada’s current rate is hovering around 2.25%, and the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board (GVR) expects that rates are “likely to remain steady.” This means we shouldn’t anticipate a drastic rate cut coming to the rescue immediately, and increasing demand.
Supply and Demand Imbalance
There is still a strong imbalance between supply and demand for residential real estate across many cities in Metro Vancouver.
With over 15,000 listings and fewer than 1,900 monthly sales, there are currently 8.2 months of inventory available. This heavy surplus will take time to clear.
Economic Uncertainty
External factors are also playing a role in buyer confidence. Issues such as U.S. tariffs and potential changes to immigration policy are contributing to economic uncertainty, making potential buyers more hesitant.
Inventory Pipeline
Even though developers are beginning to scale back on new projects, those that are already underway will continue to add new completions to the supply throughout 2026. This new supply will add to the existing inventory.
What Others In Vancouver Think
Neighbourhood & Property-Specific Strategies
While we’ve been talking about property values and changes in aggregate, or by property type, it’s also important to dive into the local markets and their specifics. Typically, one city can have differing metrics from another, even if they’re both in Metro Vancouver.
Richmond
In Richmond, the detached housing market remains consistent, with some noticeable oversupply of condos due to new developments. Living in Richmond is perfect for families looking for more space and good transit access. Looking into 2026, we may see a balanced market for detached homes with a strong buyer’s market for condos.
Burnaby
Strong transit and community-focused hubs like Metrotown and Brentwood continue to be highly desirable with less downward movement in prices. However, the absorption of new developments is beginning to test the limits of demand.
These locations are best suited for first-time buyers and commuters who prioritize accessibility. For Burnaby homes in 2026, transit-friendly and green-space areas may continue to maintain property values, while those less accessible or desirable properties may see continued softening.
West Vancouver
West Vancouver, which includes properties priced at $1.5 million and above, is facing challenges similar to other luxury markets. It’s becoming common for these homes to stay on the market for extended periods, often exceeding 60 days. This makes it an ideal environment for patient buyers who have strong negotiating skills. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect this to remain a buyer’s market, with potential for slight price softening, as well.
East Vancouver
East Vancouver offers a more affordable entry point than West Vancouver or Downtown Vancouver. Character homes in this area continue to attract first-time and second-time buyers who are upsizing, making it particularly popular with young families and buyers willing to take on renovations.
Looking ahead to 2026, this is likely the most stable sub-market in Metro Vancouver that’s positioned closest to balanced conditions.
Coquitlam/Tri-Cities
These cities remain the most affordable option for detached homes. The addition of the Evergreen Line has improved accessibility to the area, but inventory is rising due to new completions in Burquitlam and other neighbourhoods.
Looking ahead to 2026, it presents a good value opportunity, though there is a potential risk of oversupply in the condo market.
Seller Strategy in a Buyer’s Market
As we’ve seen, the data is pointing to a potential buyer’s market throughout 2026, which may subside as we head into 2027.
If you are planning to sell in Metro Vancouver, you need to be strategic as you’re competing with over 15,000 other listings for a limited pool of buyers.
Strategic Pricing Approach
For detached homes, price 3-5% below recent comparables and anticipate some negotiation. For townhouses, set the price at market value but leave a little room for negotiation. Condos face the most competition, so pricing 2-3% below recent sales may be necessary to stand out.
Timing Considerations
In Q1 2026, you can expect a seasonal uptick with 15-20% more buyers, but you’ll also face 25-30% more competing listings. Looking ahead to Q2 2026 and beyond, the market is expected to continue softening. For most sellers, this means that waiting longer to sell is likely not the better strategy.”
Recommended Resource: Ready to Sell? Understanding List Price & Comparative Market Analysis
The Bottom Line
Is it a good time to buy a house in Metro Vancouver? The answer depends on your situation. Here’s a breakdown to help you decide:
YES, it’s a good time if you are:
If you’re a first-time buyer targeting the $500K-$750K range and can access government programs, you could gain a ~$19,400 advantage.
For those planning to stay long-term, buying now could be a smart move if you intend to live in the home for 5+ years and can comfortably afford the payments.
If your decision is lifestyle-driven and based on life timing rather than trying to time the market perfectly, it’s also worth considering making your first or next real estate move.
NO (or WAIT) if you are:
If you’re an investor seeking immediate cash flow, the current market may not support positive returns right away.
Similarly, speculative buyers looking to flip a property in the short term may find now isn’t the best time. For those facing financial uncertainty, such as unstable employment or income, it’s safer to wait.
Lastly, if you’re stretching your budget to the limit just to qualify, it’s better to hold off and reassess.
Final Thoughts
Deciding whether to buy property in the current market depends on your financial situation, goals, and timelines.
And if you need help making that decision, we can help walk you through that, no obligations. Contact us today and let’s connect.
